Hedge Bet Calculator — Lock In Guaranteed Profit

The hedge bet calculator is designed for one specific situation: you have already placed a back bet at one bookmaker, and you now want to place a bet on the opposite outcome at another book (or lay the selection on a betting exchange) to guarantee a profit regardless of the result.

Enter three values:

1. Back Stake — the amount you wagered on your original bet.
2. Back Odds (Decimal) — the decimal odds you received on your original bet, e.g. 2.10 for a near-even-money selection.
3. Hedge Odds (Decimal) — the decimal odds available at the second bookmaker or exchange for the opposing outcome. Must be lower than the back odds to guarantee a profit.

The calculator outputs the exact hedge stake to place, plus the profit you will receive whether your original back bet wins or loses. If both figures are positive, you have locked in a risk-free return.

All odds should be entered in decimal format (European format). To convert from fractional (e.g. 11/10) add 1 to get decimal (2.10). To convert from American: positive odds such as +110 become 2.10; negative odds such as -110 become 100/110 + 1 ≈ 1.909.

The hedge calculation finds the stake that makes your profit identical in both outcome scenarios. Here is the full derivation:

1. Define variables:
   • S = back stake (your original bet)
   • B = back odds (decimal)
   • H = hedge odds (decimal)
   • X = hedge stake (what we are solving for)
2. If original back selection wins:
   Profit = S × (B − 1) − X
   (You collect S × B from your back bet, pay back S stake, and lose the hedge stake X.)
3. If original back selection loses:
   Profit = X × (H − 1) − S
   (You lose your back stake S and collect X × H from the hedge bet, returning X.)
4. Set profits equal and solve for X:
   S(B − 1) − X = X(H − 1) − S
   SB − S − X = XH − X − S
   SB = XH
   X = S × B / H
5. Guaranteed profit (both outcomes):
   Profit = S(B − 1) − X = SB − S − SB/H = SB(1 − 1/H) − S

A guaranteed profit is only achievable when H < B (hedge odds are lower than back odds). If H ≥ B, there is no arbitrage opportunity and at least one scenario will show a loss.

Example 1 — Standard Hedge Bet with Guaranteed Profit

You backed Team A to win at odds 2.10 for $100. After the game kicks off, odds on Team A have shortened and you can now bet on Team A to lose (or lay them on an exchange) at 2.05.

• Hedge stake = $100 × 2.10 / 2.05 ≈ $102.44
• If Team A wins: $100 × (2.10 − 1) − $102.44 = $110 − $102.44 = +$7.56 profit
• If Team A loses: $102.44 × (2.05 − 1) − $100 = $107.56 − $100 = +$7.56 profit
• Total invested: $202.44 — ROI: 3.73%

By betting $102.44 at the hedge book, you have guaranteed yourself a $7.56 profit no matter what. This is a classic arb that arises when the line has moved in your favour after you placed the original bet.

Example 2 — Partial Hedge (No Arb, Reducing Risk)

You backed a horse at 5.00 for $50 before the race. Post-draw, the horse is favourite and available to lay on Betfair at 4.20. No arb exists (lay odds are lower than back odds — wait, that means arb does exist here since H < B):

• Hedge stake = $50 × 5.00 / 4.20 ≈ $59.52
• If horse wins: $50 × 4 − $59.52 = $200 − $59.52 = +$140.48
• If horse loses: $59.52 × 3.20 − $50 = $190.48 − $50 = +$140.48

Locking in a pre-race profit of $140.48 on a $50 original stake is a massive win — an ROI of over 130%. This scenario commonly arises with ante-post bets where the price drifts significantly before race day.

When Should You Hedge?

Hedging makes sense in several situations:

• Price movement: Your selection has shortened dramatically, meaning the hedge odds are now much lower than your original odds.
• Large stake at risk: The potential loss is significant enough that accepting a smaller guaranteed profit is worth more than the expected value of running the bet to completion.
• Matched betting: Turning a free bet or sign-up offer into guaranteed cash by backing at the bookmaker and laying on an exchange.
• Accumulator insurance: You are one leg from a large accumulator win and want to lock in a portion of the profit rather than risk it all on the final game.